Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) and incumbent Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) advance to the October 25 runoff after Pazolini captured 49.65% in the first round to Ferraço’s 34.06%. The sole post-first-round poll, from Quaest conducted October 10–13, shows Pazolini at 47% and Ferraço at 38% among valid votes, with 84% of respondents reporting firm choices. Ferraço’s 57% approval rating and recent assumption of the governorship provide a base for consolidation of non-Pazolini voters, while Pazolini benefits from first-round momentum and backing from figures such as Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Limited polling data, a six-day window to election day, and the potential for shifts among the remaining undecided or flexible voters sustain trader expectations of a narrow margin or alternative outcome in the second round.