Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) leads the second-round runoff for Rio Grande do Norte governor at 66.5% implied probability after topping the October 4 first round with 36.94% to Cadu de Lula’s (PT) 36.16% and Álvaro Dias’s 26.71%. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data, Exatus, and Data Capital show Allyson ahead by 3–4 points among valid votes in a technical tie within margins of error, driven by his local base in Mossoró, broader coalition support, and efforts to stay above national polarization. Cadu, the outgoing administration’s finance secretary, benefits from PT continuity and Lula’s strong state performance but trails in most surveys. The October 25 vote remains the decisive event, with traders pricing in Allyson’s slight momentum edge over the evenly matched contest.