Mailza Assis (PP) enters the October 25 runoff holding a substantial lead built in the first round, where she captured 49.76% of valid votes across 19 of 22 municipalities while Alan Rick (Republicanos) reached 32.27%. Recent polls show her ahead by 17 points or more on valid votes, reflecting strong incumbency advantages after assuming the governorship in April and consistent regional support. The contest remains open to margin variation because 21% of voters in one survey indicate they could still switch and roughly one-fifth remain undecided or open to blank/null ballots. Final-week campaign events, turnout differentials in key municipalities, and any late endorsements or national runoff spillover could widen or narrow the gap before votes are cast.