Lula leads trader consensus for first place among overseas voters in Brazil’s October 25 runoff at 78% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 21%, reflecting first-round patterns where the incumbent captured 47.57% of valid expatriate ballots to the challenger’s 43.49%. Lula prevailed in 64 countries, driven by strong margins in Europe, while Flávio performed better in the United States and parts of the Americas. High abstention rates near 63% among roughly 917,000 eligible voters abroad add uncertainty, yet the demographic concentration of Brazilian communities in regions favoring the Workers’ Party sustains the current positioning. National polling remains tight overall, but overseas voting history and turnout dynamics continue to shape expectations for this segment ahead of resolution.