Weather

Temperature

Highest temperature in Taipei on October 24?

27°C

69%

Yes No

28°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

$45K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 24?

19°C

80%

Yes No

20°C

19%

Yes No

NEW

$34K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Busan on October 24?

19°C

43%

Yes No

18°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

$27K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Paris on October 24?

13°C

44%

Yes No

14°C

43%

Yes No

NEW

$26K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in London on October 24?

16°C

51%

Yes No

17°C

40%

Yes No

NEW

$23K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 24?

18°C

42%

Yes No

19°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

$22K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 24?

21°C

48%

Yes No

22°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

$20K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 24?

32°C

44%

Yes No

31°C

43%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Lucknow on October 24?

31°C

56%

Yes No

30°C

40%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 24?

25°C

35%

Yes No

26°C

12%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 24?

31°C

53%

Yes No

32°C

36%

Yes No

NEW

$18K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 24?

13°C

67%

Yes No

12°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

$16K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Toronto on October 24?

15°C

62%

Yes No

16°C

24%

Yes No

NEW

$16K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Manila on October 24?

31°C

53%

Yes No

32°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

$15K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Wellington on October 24?

17°C

55%

Yes No

18°C

39%

Yes No

NEW

$14K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Munich on October 24?

10°C

55%

Yes No

11°C

30%

Yes No

NEW

$14K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Houston on October 24?

84-85°F

54%

Yes No

82-83°F

41%

Yes No

NEW

$14K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 24?

13°C

55%

Yes No

14°C

21%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in NYC on October 24?

62-63°F

72%

Yes No

64-65°F

14%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 24?

21°C

45%

Yes No

22°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on October 24?

18°C

Yes No

17°C

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 24?

19°C

47%

Yes No

20°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Ankara on October 24?

20°C

49%

Yes No

21°C

41%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 24?

36°C

44%

Yes No

35°C

40%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 24?

30°C

56%

Yes No

31°C

23%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Beijing on October 24?

18°C

46%

Yes No

17°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Singapore on October 24?

32°C

45%

Yes No

33°C

38%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Karachi on October 24?

37°C

49%

Yes No

36°C

24%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seattle on October 24?

54-55°F

42%

Yes No

56-57°F

30%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Dallas on October 24?

84-85°F

64%

Yes No

82-83°F

31%

Yes No

NEW

$10K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Miami on October 24?

84-85°F

51%

Yes No

82-83°F

42%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Atlanta on October 24?

70-71°F

63%

Yes No

68-69°F

25%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 24?

22°C

38%

Yes No

21°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 24?

17°C

60%

Yes No

16°C

19%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on October 24?

31°C

34%

Yes No

32°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Helsinki on October 24?

12°C

57%

Yes No

11°C

43%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 24?

26°C

29%

Yes No

25°C

22%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on October 24?

32°C

49%

Yes No

31°C

35%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Austin on October 24?

86-87°F

66%

Yes No

88-89°F

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 24?

76-77°F

50%

Yes No

74-75°F

38%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Milan on October 24?

17°C

54%

Yes No

18°C

37%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Chicago on October 24?

70-71°F

55%

Yes No

72-73°F

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in NYC on October 24?

46-47°F

50%

Yes No

44-45°F

31%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 24?

23°C

42%

Yes No

24°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 24?

70-71°F

56%

Yes No

72-73°F

20%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Madrid on October 24?

19°C

51%

Yes No

20°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 24?

22°C

47%

Yes No

23°C

35%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 24?

4°C

47%

Yes No

3°C or below

31%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Wellington on October 24?

14°C

96%

Yes No

13°C

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Denver on October 24?

56-57°F

39%

Yes No

58-59°F

36%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 24?

18°C

39%

Yes No

19°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 24?

15°C

80%

Yes No

14°C

17%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Warsaw on October 24?

5°C

44%

Yes No

6°C

45%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 24?

22°C

58%

Yes No

21°C

37%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Panama City on October 24?

32°C

46%

Yes No

31°C

33%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 24?

17°C

50%

Yes No

18°C

33%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in London on October 24?

7°C

61%

Yes No

8°C

35%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Paris on October 24?

9°C

52%

Yes No

8°C

27%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Miami on October 24?

72-73°F

42%

Yes No

70-71°F

36%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Moscow on October 24?

12°C

47%

Yes No

13°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 24?

60-61°F

Yes No

52-53°F

70%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 24?

13°C

51%

Yes No

11°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Beijing on October 24?

7°C

51%

Yes No

5°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Qingdao on October 24?

9°C or below

100%

Yes No

10°C

50%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Chongqing on October 24?

14°C

50%

Yes No

15°C

50%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Busan on October 24?

14°C

100%

Yes No

15°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 24?

13°C

98%

Yes No

15°C

49%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Mexico City on October 24?

6°C

76%

Yes No

7°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 24?

8°C or below

99%

Yes No

9°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Istanbul on October 24?

8°C or below

100%

Yes No

9°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 24?

21°C

100%

Yes No

25°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 24?

17°C

100%

Yes No

18°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 24?

19°C

44%

Yes No

20°C

44%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on October 24?

20°C

100%

Yes No

21°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Karachi on October 24?

24°C

42%

Yes No

25°C

42%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Denver on October 24?

40-41°F

76%

Yes No

42-43°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Chicago on October 24?

41°F or below

99%

Yes No

42-43°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Ankara on October 24?

3°C

76%

Yes No

4°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Toronto on October 24?

1°C or below

99%

Yes No

2°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 24?

13°C or below

99%

Yes No

14°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24?

43°F or below

98%

Yes No

44-45°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Seattle on October 24?

33°F or below

100%

Yes No

34-35°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Houston on October 24?

55°F or below

99%

Yes No

56-57°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Austin on October 24?

49°F or below

99%

Yes No

50-51°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Atlanta on October 24?

41°F or below

99%

Yes No

42-43°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Dallas on October 24?

51°F or below

99%

Yes No

52-53°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Cape Town on October 24?

10°C

76%

Yes No

11°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Jeddah on October 24?

22°C or below

98%

Yes No

23°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 24?

3°C or below

95%

Yes No

6°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on October 24?

5°C

76%

Yes No

6°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 24?

-2°C or below

100%

Yes No

-1°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Milan on October 24?

2°C

76%

Yes No

3°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 24?

17°C or below

99%

Yes No

18°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Munich on October 24?

0°C

76%

Yes No

1°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Precipitation

Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?

70-120mm

97%

Yes No

210mm+

Yes No

$60K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seoul in October?

70-85mm

86%

Yes No

85mm+

10%

Yes No

$51K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in NYC in October?

<3"

95%

Yes No

3-4.25"

Yes No

$42K Vol.

Monthly

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

October

86%

Yes No

November

13%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

Precipitation in London in October?

85-110mm

Yes No

70-85mm

50%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seattle in October?

<1.75"

83%

Yes No

1.75-2.5"

16%

Yes No

$35K Vol.

Monthly

Where will it rain on October 23?

Miami, FL

Yes No

Boston, MA

50%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Rain during the United States Grand Prix?

17%

chance

Yes

NEW

California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?

27%

Drier

Wetter

NEW

Where will it rain on October 24?

Miami, FL

Yes No

Seattle, WA

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Drought

When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

Does not return by November 1, 2026

97%

Yes No

October 1 - 31, 2026

Yes No

$160K Vol.

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

October 1 - 31, 2026

68%

Yes No

No return before November 1, 2026

32%

Yes No

$157K Vol.

How low will Lake Powell drop?

Above 3,510 ft

86%

Yes No

3,500–3,510 ft

Yes No

$69K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

-1.00 to 0.99 ft

44%

Yes No

-3.00 to -1.01 ft

33%

Yes No

$53K Vol.

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft

84%

Yes No

Below 4,189.3 ft

14%

Yes No

$46K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

4.00 to 4.99 ft

34%

Yes No

6.00 ft or more

25%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

How low will Lake Mead drop?

1,028–1,033 ft

Yes No

Below 1,028 ft

Yes No

$23K Vol.

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Under 5%

22%

Yes No

40% to 59.99%

19%

Yes No

$16K Vol.

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 27, 2026

Arkansas

95%

Yes No

Mississippi

93%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Global

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

84%

Yes No

13%

Yes No

$4M Vol.

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

chance

Yes

$352K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

13%

chance

Yes

$251K Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

chance

Yes

$148K Vol.

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Over 2.5

61%

Yes No

2.25–2.5

33%

Yes No

$121K Vol.

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

1-3

98%

Yes No

4-6

Yes No

$74K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

chance

Yes

$60K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

-1.00 to 0.99 ft

44%

Yes No

-3.00 to -1.01 ft

33%

Yes No

$53K Vol.

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft

84%

Yes No

Below 4,189.3 ft

14%

Yes No

$46K Vol.

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Hawaii

Yes No

Louisiana

Yes No

$42K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

4.00 to 4.99 ft

34%

Yes No

6.00 ft or more

25%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

First snow of the 2026 season

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30

97%

Yes No

Denver, CO by November 30

96%

Yes No

$38K Vol.

How strong will Champi be?

Violent

98%

Yes No

Strong

Yes No

$34K Vol.

US Tornadoes in October 2026

35 - 59

84%

Yes No

20 - 34

Yes No

$31K Vol.

Monthly

October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest

95%

Yes No

3rd hottest

Yes No

$31K Vol.

How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?

7.0+

100%

Yes No

7.5+

100%

Yes No

$22K Vol.

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

March 31, 2027

50%

Yes No

December 31, 2026

Yes No

$18K Vol.

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

73%

Yes No

22%

Yes No

$17K Vol.

Weekly

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Under 5%

22%

Yes No

40% to 59.99%

19%

Yes No

$16K Vol.

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

97%

chance

Yes

$10K Vol.

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

18%

Yes No

18%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?

Japan

35%

Yes No

Indonesia

27%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?

68%

chance

Yes

NEW

Highest sea level in San Diego this winter?

7.70 ft or more

83%

Yes No

7.90 ft or more

69%

Yes No

NEW

How strong will Vance be?

Category 3

40%

Yes No

Category 4

26%

Yes No

NEW

Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

US Tornadoes in September 2026

50 - 74

99%

Yes No

25 - 49

34%

Yes No

$4K Vol.

Monthly

Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

17%

chance

Yes

NEW

October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.45–1.49ºC

Yes No

1.35–1.39ºC

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

NEW

Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Rain during the United States Grand Prix?

17%

chance

Yes

NEW

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

NEW

Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in October?

≥110 mph

99%

Yes No

≥95 mph

99%

Yes No

NEW

Tornado in California by October 25?

chance

Yes

NEW

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

42%

Yes No

33%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?

27%

Drier

Wetter

NEW

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

≤6

29%

Yes No

13%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Tornadoes

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+

93%

Yes No

1200–1249

Yes No

$86K Vol.

US Tornadoes in October 2026

35 - 59

84%

Yes No

20 - 34

Yes No

$31K Vol.

Monthly

US Tornadoes in September 2026

50 - 74

99%

Yes No

25 - 49

34%

Yes No

$4K Vol.

Monthly

Which cities face tornado risk on October 23?

Charlotte, NC

26%

Yes No

Denver, CO

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Tornado in California by October 25?

chance

Yes

NEW

Hurricanes

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

chance

Yes

$352K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

13%

chance

Yes

$251K Vol.

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

Greater than 8

40%

Yes No

40%

Yes No

$199K Vol.

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

chance

Yes

$143K Vol.

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

1-3

98%

Yes No

4-6

Yes No

$74K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

chance

Yes

$60K Vol.

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Hawaii

Yes No

Louisiana

Yes No

$42K Vol.

How strong will Champi be?

Violent

98%

Yes No

Strong

Yes No

$34K Vol.

How strong will Vance be?

Category 3

40%

Yes No

Category 4

26%

Yes No

NEW

All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

NEW

Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Earthquakes

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

56%

Yes No

17–19

38%

Yes No

$1M Vol.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

chance

Yes

$833K Vol.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

chance

Yes

$333K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

13%

chance

Yes

$251K Vol.

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

7.9 or below

78%

Yes No

8.2 – 8.3

Yes No

$28K Vol.

How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?

7.0+

100%

Yes No

7.5+

100%

Yes No

$22K Vol.

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

chance

Yes

$21K Vol.

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

73%

Yes No

22%

Yes No

$17K Vol.

Weekly

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

18%

Yes No

18%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?

Japan

35%

Yes No

Indonesia

27%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?

5.7 to 5.8

85%

Yes No

6.1 or more

13%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

42%

Yes No

33%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026?

6.1 or more

24%

Yes No

Under 5.3

18%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

≤6

29%

Yes No

13%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026?

6.1 or more

24%

Yes No

5.5 to 5.6

18%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Volcanoes

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

61%

Yes No

16%

Yes No

$1M Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

chance

Yes

$148K Vol.

Pandemics

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$19M Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑5k

99%

Yes No

↑4.75k

97%

Yes No

$8M Vol.

Monthly

New pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$789K Vol.

Plague pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$508K Vol.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

14%

chance

Yes

$247K Vol.

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

chance

Yes

$142K Vol.

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

chance

Yes

$123K Vol.

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...? card icon

Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?

chance

Yes

$99K Vol.

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Somalia

53%

Yes No

South Sudan

34%

Yes No

$75K Vol.

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

20 to 34

97%

Yes No

35 to 49

Yes No

$69K Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

4700+

98%

Yes No

4800+

48%

Yes No

$32K Vol.

Monthly

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$30K Vol.

New pandemic before 2028?

13%

chance

Yes

$23K Vol.

Plague declared public health emergency by...?

December 31

Yes No

November 30

Yes No

$21K Vol.

Plague case in US by December 31?

chance

Yes

$15K Vol.

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

December 31

Yes No

October 31

Yes No

$12K Vol.

US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Weather

Temperature

Highest temperature in Taipei on October 24?

27°C

69%

Yes No

28°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

$45K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 24?

19°C

80%

Yes No

20°C

19%

Yes No

NEW

$34K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Busan on October 24?

19°C

43%

Yes No

18°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

$27K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Paris on October 24?

13°C

44%

Yes No

14°C

43%

Yes No

NEW

$26K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in London on October 24?

16°C

51%

Yes No

17°C

40%

Yes No

NEW

$23K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 24?

18°C

42%

Yes No

19°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

$22K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 24?

21°C

48%

Yes No

22°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

$20K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 24?

32°C

44%

Yes No

31°C

43%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Lucknow on October 24?

31°C

56%

Yes No

30°C

40%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 24?

25°C

35%

Yes No

26°C

12%

Yes No

NEW

$19K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 24?

31°C

53%

Yes No

32°C

36%

Yes No

NEW

$18K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 24?

13°C

67%

Yes No

12°C

25%

Yes No

NEW

$16K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Toronto on October 24?

15°C

62%

Yes No

16°C

24%

Yes No

NEW

$16K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Manila on October 24?

31°C

53%

Yes No

32°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

$15K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Wellington on October 24?

17°C

55%

Yes No

18°C

39%

Yes No

NEW

$14K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Munich on October 24?

10°C

55%

Yes No

11°C

30%

Yes No

NEW

$14K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Houston on October 24?

84-85°F

54%

Yes No

82-83°F

41%

Yes No

NEW

$14K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 24?

13°C

55%

Yes No

14°C

21%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in NYC on October 24?

62-63°F

72%

Yes No

64-65°F

14%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 24?

21°C

45%

Yes No

22°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

$13K Vol.

Daily

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on October 24?

18°C

Yes No

17°C

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 24?

19°C

47%

Yes No

20°C

31%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Ankara on October 24?

20°C

49%

Yes No

21°C

41%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 24?

36°C

44%

Yes No

35°C

40%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 24?

30°C

56%

Yes No

31°C

23%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Beijing on October 24?

18°C

46%

Yes No

17°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Singapore on October 24?

32°C

45%

Yes No

33°C

38%

Yes No

NEW

$12K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Karachi on October 24?

37°C

49%

Yes No

36°C

24%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Seattle on October 24?

54-55°F

42%

Yes No

56-57°F

30%

Yes No

NEW

$11K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Dallas on October 24?

84-85°F

64%

Yes No

82-83°F

31%

Yes No

NEW

$10K Vol.

Daily

Highest temperature in Miami on October 24?

84-85°F

51%

Yes No

82-83°F

42%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Atlanta on October 24?

70-71°F

63%

Yes No

68-69°F

25%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 24?

22°C

38%

Yes No

21°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 24?

17°C

60%

Yes No

16°C

19%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on October 24?

31°C

34%

Yes No

32°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Helsinki on October 24?

12°C

57%

Yes No

11°C

43%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 24?

26°C

29%

Yes No

25°C

22%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on October 24?

32°C

49%

Yes No

31°C

35%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Austin on October 24?

86-87°F

66%

Yes No

88-89°F

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 24?

76-77°F

50%

Yes No

74-75°F

38%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Milan on October 24?

17°C

54%

Yes No

18°C

37%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Chicago on October 24?

70-71°F

55%

Yes No

72-73°F

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in NYC on October 24?

46-47°F

50%

Yes No

44-45°F

31%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 24?

23°C

42%

Yes No

24°C

28%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 24?

70-71°F

56%

Yes No

72-73°F

20%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Madrid on October 24?

19°C

51%

Yes No

20°C

34%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 24?

22°C

47%

Yes No

23°C

35%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 24?

4°C

47%

Yes No

3°C or below

31%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Wellington on October 24?

14°C

96%

Yes No

13°C

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Denver on October 24?

56-57°F

39%

Yes No

58-59°F

36%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 24?

18°C

39%

Yes No

19°C

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 24?

15°C

80%

Yes No

14°C

17%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Warsaw on October 24?

5°C

44%

Yes No

6°C

45%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 24?

22°C

58%

Yes No

21°C

37%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Panama City on October 24?

32°C

46%

Yes No

31°C

33%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 24?

17°C

50%

Yes No

18°C

33%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in London on October 24?

7°C

61%

Yes No

8°C

35%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Paris on October 24?

9°C

52%

Yes No

8°C

27%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Miami on October 24?

72-73°F

42%

Yes No

70-71°F

36%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Highest temperature in Moscow on October 24?

12°C

47%

Yes No

13°C

29%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 24?

60-61°F

Yes No

52-53°F

70%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 24?

13°C

51%

Yes No

11°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Beijing on October 24?

7°C

51%

Yes No

5°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Qingdao on October 24?

9°C or below

100%

Yes No

10°C

50%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Chongqing on October 24?

14°C

50%

Yes No

15°C

50%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Busan on October 24?

14°C

100%

Yes No

15°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 24?

13°C

98%

Yes No

15°C

49%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Mexico City on October 24?

6°C

76%

Yes No

7°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 24?

8°C or below

99%

Yes No

9°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Istanbul on October 24?

8°C or below

100%

Yes No

9°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 24?

21°C

100%

Yes No

25°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 24?

17°C

100%

Yes No

18°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 24?

19°C

44%

Yes No

20°C

44%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on October 24?

20°C

100%

Yes No

21°C

100%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Karachi on October 24?

24°C

42%

Yes No

25°C

42%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Denver on October 24?

40-41°F

76%

Yes No

42-43°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Chicago on October 24?

41°F or below

99%

Yes No

42-43°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Ankara on October 24?

3°C

76%

Yes No

4°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Toronto on October 24?

1°C or below

99%

Yes No

2°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 24?

13°C or below

99%

Yes No

14°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in San Francisco on October 24?

43°F or below

98%

Yes No

44-45°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Seattle on October 24?

33°F or below

100%

Yes No

34-35°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Houston on October 24?

55°F or below

99%

Yes No

56-57°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Austin on October 24?

49°F or below

99%

Yes No

50-51°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Atlanta on October 24?

41°F or below

99%

Yes No

42-43°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Dallas on October 24?

51°F or below

99%

Yes No

52-53°F

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Cape Town on October 24?

10°C

76%

Yes No

11°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Jeddah on October 24?

22°C or below

98%

Yes No

23°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 24?

3°C or below

95%

Yes No

6°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on October 24?

5°C

76%

Yes No

6°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 24?

-2°C or below

100%

Yes No

-1°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Milan on October 24?

2°C

76%

Yes No

3°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 24?

17°C or below

99%

Yes No

18°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Lowest temperature in Munich on October 24?

0°C

76%

Yes No

1°C

76%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Precipitation

Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?

70-120mm

97%

Yes No

210mm+

Yes No

$60K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seoul in October?

70-85mm

86%

Yes No

85mm+

10%

Yes No

$51K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in NYC in October?

<3"

95%

Yes No

3-4.25"

Yes No

$42K Vol.

Monthly

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

October

86%

Yes No

November

13%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

Precipitation in London in October?

85-110mm

Yes No

70-85mm

50%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seattle in October?

<1.75"

83%

Yes No

1.75-2.5"

16%

Yes No

$35K Vol.

Monthly

Where will it rain on October 23?

Miami, FL

Yes No

Boston, MA

50%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Rain during the United States Grand Prix?

17%

chance

Yes

NEW

California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?

27%

Drier

Wetter

NEW

Where will it rain on October 24?

Miami, FL

Yes No

Seattle, WA

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Drought

When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

Does not return by November 1, 2026

97%

Yes No

October 1 - 31, 2026

Yes No

$160K Vol.

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

October 1 - 31, 2026

68%

Yes No

No return before November 1, 2026

32%

Yes No

$157K Vol.

How low will Lake Powell drop?

Above 3,510 ft

86%

Yes No

3,500–3,510 ft

Yes No

$69K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

-1.00 to 0.99 ft

44%

Yes No

-3.00 to -1.01 ft

33%

Yes No

$53K Vol.

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft

84%

Yes No

Below 4,189.3 ft

14%

Yes No

$46K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

4.00 to 4.99 ft

34%

Yes No

6.00 ft or more

25%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

How low will Lake Mead drop?

1,028–1,033 ft

Yes No

Below 1,028 ft

Yes No

$23K Vol.

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Under 5%

22%

Yes No

40% to 59.99%

19%

Yes No

$16K Vol.

Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 27, 2026

Arkansas

95%

Yes No

Mississippi

93%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Global

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

84%

Yes No

13%

Yes No

$4M Vol.

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

chance

Yes

$352K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

13%

chance

Yes

$251K Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

chance

Yes

$148K Vol.

What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Over 2.5

61%

Yes No

2.25–2.5

33%

Yes No

$121K Vol.

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

1-3

98%

Yes No

4-6

Yes No

$74K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

chance

Yes

$60K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

-1.00 to 0.99 ft

44%

Yes No

-3.00 to -1.01 ft

33%

Yes No

$53K Vol.

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft

84%

Yes No

Below 4,189.3 ft

14%

Yes No

$46K Vol.

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Hawaii

Yes No

Louisiana

Yes No

$42K Vol.

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

4.00 to 4.99 ft

34%

Yes No

6.00 ft or more

25%

Yes No

$39K Vol.

First snow of the 2026 season

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30

97%

Yes No

Denver, CO by November 30

96%

Yes No

$38K Vol.

How strong will Champi be?

Violent

98%

Yes No

Strong

Yes No

$34K Vol.

US Tornadoes in October 2026

35 - 59

84%

Yes No

20 - 34

Yes No

$31K Vol.

Monthly

October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest

95%

Yes No

3rd hottest

Yes No

$31K Vol.

How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?

7.0+

100%

Yes No

7.5+

100%

Yes No

$22K Vol.

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

March 31, 2027

50%

Yes No

December 31, 2026

Yes No

$18K Vol.

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

73%

Yes No

22%

Yes No

$17K Vol.

Weekly

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Under 5%

22%

Yes No

40% to 59.99%

19%

Yes No

$16K Vol.

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

97%

chance

Yes

$10K Vol.

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

18%

Yes No

18%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?

Japan

35%

Yes No

Indonesia

27%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?

68%

chance

Yes

NEW

Highest sea level in San Diego this winter?

7.70 ft or more

83%

Yes No

7.90 ft or more

69%

Yes No

NEW

How strong will Vance be?

Category 3

40%

Yes No

Category 4

26%

Yes No

NEW

Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

US Tornadoes in September 2026

50 - 74

99%

Yes No

25 - 49

34%

Yes No

$4K Vol.

Monthly

Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

17%

chance

Yes

NEW

October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.45–1.49ºC

Yes No

1.35–1.39ºC

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

NEW

Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Rain during the United States Grand Prix?

17%

chance

Yes

NEW

Will the TFFF reach $10 billion in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

NEW

Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in October?

≥110 mph

99%

Yes No

≥95 mph

99%

Yes No

NEW

Tornado in California by October 25?

chance

Yes

NEW

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

42%

Yes No

33%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?

27%

Drier

Wetter

NEW

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

≤6

29%

Yes No

13%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Tornadoes

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+

93%

Yes No

1200–1249

Yes No

$86K Vol.

US Tornadoes in October 2026

35 - 59

84%

Yes No

20 - 34

Yes No

$31K Vol.

Monthly

US Tornadoes in September 2026

50 - 74

99%

Yes No

25 - 49

34%

Yes No

$4K Vol.

Monthly

Which cities face tornado risk on October 23?

Charlotte, NC

26%

Yes No

Denver, CO

26%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Tornado in California by October 25?

chance

Yes

NEW

Hurricanes

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

chance

Yes

$352K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

13%

chance

Yes

$251K Vol.

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

Greater than 8

40%

Yes No

40%

Yes No

$199K Vol.

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

chance

Yes

$143K Vol.

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

1-3

98%

Yes No

4-6

Yes No

$74K Vol.

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

chance

Yes

$60K Vol.

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Hawaii

Yes No

Louisiana

Yes No

$42K Vol.

How strong will Champi be?

Violent

98%

Yes No

Strong

Yes No

$34K Vol.

How strong will Vance be?

Category 3

40%

Yes No

Category 4

26%

Yes No

NEW

All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

14%

chance

Yes

NEW

Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

Earthquakes

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16

56%

Yes No

17–19

38%

Yes No

$1M Vol.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

chance

Yes

$833K Vol.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

chance

Yes

$333K Vol.

Natural Disaster in 2026?

13%

chance

Yes

$251K Vol.

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

7.9 or below

78%

Yes No

8.2 – 8.3

Yes No

$28K Vol.

How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?

7.0+

100%

Yes No

7.5+

100%

Yes No

$22K Vol.

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

chance

Yes

$21K Vol.

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

73%

Yes No

22%

Yes No

$17K Vol.

Weekly

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

18%

Yes No

18%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October?

Japan

35%

Yes No

Indonesia

27%

Yes No

NEW

Monthly

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?

5.7 to 5.8

85%

Yes No

6.1 or more

13%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

42%

Yes No

33%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026?

6.1 or more

24%

Yes No

Under 5.3

18%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?

≤6

29%

Yes No

13%

Yes No

NEW

Weekly

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026?

6.1 or more

24%

Yes No

5.5 to 5.6

18%

Yes No

NEW

Daily

Volcanoes

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

61%

Yes No

16%

Yes No

$1M Vol.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

chance

Yes

$148K Vol.

Pandemics

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$19M Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑5k

99%

Yes No

↑4.75k

97%

Yes No

$8M Vol.

Monthly

New pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$789K Vol.

Plague pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$508K Vol.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

14%

chance

Yes

$247K Vol.

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

chance

Yes

$142K Vol.

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

chance

Yes

$123K Vol.

Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?

chance

Yes

$99K Vol.

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Somalia

53%

Yes No

South Sudan

34%

Yes No

$75K Vol.

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

20 to 34

97%

Yes No

35 to 49

Yes No

$69K Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

4700+

98%

Yes No

4800+

48%

Yes No

$32K Vol.

Monthly

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes

$30K Vol.

New pandemic before 2028?

13%

chance

Yes

$23K Vol.

Plague declared public health emergency by...?

December 31

Yes No

November 30

Yes No

$21K Vol.

Plague case in US by December 31?

chance

Yes

$15K Vol.

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

December 31

Yes No

October 31

Yes No

$12K Vol.

US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?

chance

Yes

NEW

About Weather Predictions & Odds

Weather is one of the few subjects where almost everyone has an opinion and nature keeps an exact, public scorecard. Polymarket’s Weather category turns that scorecard into tradable markets, letting people put real money behind their read of the atmosphere, the oceans, and the planet beneath us. Each market asks one clear question, settles on official data, and pays $1 per winning share.

Markets span daily city temperatures, monthly precipitation totals, hurricane landfalls, tornado counts, earthquake magnitudes, volcanic eruptions, global temperature records, and pandemic risk. Prices update continuously as traders react to new forecasts, satellite data, and breaking developments. A share trading at 72¢ implies roughly a 72% probability that the stated outcome will occur.

Unlike traditional weather forecasts, which are point estimates from a single model or ensemble, prediction markets aggregate the views of many independent participants who are financially accountable for their positions. That structure can surface information that no single forecaster captures alone.

Temperature

Temperature markets cover daily high and low readings for major cities around the world. Traders price whether a city’s official high will reach a given threshold on a specific date, drawing on NWS forecasts, ensemble model output, and local pattern recognition. These markets settle on the reading reported by the designated official weather station, so there is no ambiguity about the result.

Because temperature markets resolve daily, they offer a fast feedback loop that rewards accuracy and punishes overconfidence. Traders who consistently read upper-air patterns, urban heat island effects, and model biases can build an edge over the crowd.

Precipitation

Precipitation markets ask whether a city or region will record a measurable amount of rain, snow, or mixed precipitation within a defined window. Settlement relies on official gauge readings from national weather services, ensuring a clear, verifiable outcome.

Pricing precipitation is notoriously difficult—small shifts in a storm’s track can mean the difference between a soaking and a miss. Prediction markets let traders express that uncertainty as a probability, blending radar nowcasts, convective-scale models, and ground-truth intuition into a single price.

Global

Global markets focus on large-scale climate benchmarks: whether a given month or year will rank as the hottest on record, whether global mean surface temperature will exceed a threshold, or whether key indices like El Niño Southern Oscillation will hit specified levels. These markets settle on data published by agencies like NOAA, NASA GISS, or the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Because global temperature data is released with a lag, these markets tend to have longer time horizons and attract traders who follow satellite reanalysis, ocean heat content, and radiative forcing trends. Prices provide a real-time consensus on where the planet’s climate is heading.

Tornadoes

Tornado markets price the likelihood of significant tornado activity within a defined region and time window. Settlement typically follows Storm Prediction Center reports, which log confirmed tornadoes by date, location, and EF-scale rating.

Tornado forecasting is one of the hardest problems in meteorology—even the best convective outlooks carry wide uncertainty beyond a few hours. Prediction market prices can aggregate signals from mesoscale models, observed instability parameters, and pattern-matching with historical analogs, offering a crowd-sourced probability that updates as storm environments evolve.

Hurricanes

Hurricane markets cover seasonal storm counts, individual storm landfalls, peak intensity, and landfall locations. Settlement sources include the National Hurricane Center’s official advisories and post-season best-track data.

These markets tend to see heavy trading during active hurricane seasons, especially when a named storm is approaching land. Traders weigh sea-surface temperatures, wind shear, steering-level flow, and model consensus to price landfall odds in real time—sometimes days before official forecasts converge.

Earthquakes

Earthquake markets ask whether a seismic event of a given magnitude will occur within a specified region and time frame. Settlement relies on authoritative catalogs such as the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, which reports magnitude, depth, and location for every significant event worldwide.

Because earthquakes are inherently unpredictable on short time scales, these markets reflect base-rate seismicity, aftershock sequences, and swarm activity rather than deterministic forecasts. Prices express the market’s collective estimate of how likely a significant quake is, informed by historical recurrence intervals and current tectonic stress indicators.

Volcanoes

Volcano markets price the likelihood of eruptions, significant ash emissions, or aviation-alert-level changes at monitored volcanoes. Settlement is based on reports from volcano observatories and the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program.

Volcanic activity is episodic and often preceded by observable precursors—seismic swarms, ground deformation, gas emissions—that traders can track through public monitoring data. Markets let participants express probabilistic views on escalation timelines that traditional alert levels, which are categorical, cannot capture.

Pandemics

Pandemic markets cover the probability of novel pathogen outbreaks, WHO emergency declarations, case-count thresholds, and policy responses such as travel restrictions or vaccine approvals. Settlement follows official data from the WHO, national health agencies, or peer-reviewed surveillance networks.

These markets sit at the intersection of epidemiology, public policy, and crowd intelligence. Traders weigh wastewater surveillance data, genomic sequencing reports, zoonotic spillover risk, and institutional response capacity. Because pandemic risk is tail-heavy and politically sensitive, market prices can provide an unfiltered, real-time gauge of perceived outbreak severity that polls and expert panels may be slower to reflect.

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where users trade on the real-world outcomes of events across Weather and many other topics. Prices are quoted from 0 to 100 cents and reflect the implied probability that an event will occur. Because traders put real money behind their views, Polymarket odds represent a real-time, skin-in-the-game consensus, often referred to as the "wisdom of the crowd."

A Weather prediction market lets users trade Yes or No shares on a specific question tied to Weather-related events, such as "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?". Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favor, and $0 if it does not. The current share price, for example, 89% on "16°C", reflects the market’s implied probability for that outcome at any given moment.

The Weather category hosts 419 markets covering a wide range of subjects. Popular subcategories include Temperature, Global, and Pandemics, each with its own dedicated page showing live odds, trading volume, and active markets. You can browse the full list of Weather subcategories from the left-side navigation on the Weather page.

Every Weather market on Polymarket has outcomes priced between 0¢ and 100¢. That price is the implied probability of the outcome occurring. For example, if "16°C" is trading at 89% in "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?", traders are collectively pricing in roughly that probability. Prices update continuously as new information, data releases, and events move trader sentiment.

Activity is constantly shifting, but you can sort the page by 24-hour volume to see where trading is concentrated. Currently, "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?" is among the most actively traded markets on the Weather page, alongside other high-volume markets like "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?" and "Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 22?".

Each Weather market has a clearly defined resolution source and criteria published on the market page. When the event concludes, for example, when a result is officially reported, a deadline passes, or an authoritative source confirms the outcome, the market resolves and winning shares pay out $1 each. Markets in categories such as Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics typically rely on official government, regulatory, or primary-source reporting for resolution.

Weather markets respond in real time to news, announcements, data releases, and policy shifts. A single development, such as a new poll, economic indicator, court ruling, or geopolitical event, can materially change the implied probability of an outcome. Looking at markets like "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?", price movements reflect traders continuously updating their views as fresh information arrives.

Polymarket currently lists 419 markets in the Weather category. The left-side navigation shows live market counts for each available subcategory so you can quickly see where coverage is deepest.

Yes. Most Weather markets are designed to let users trade well ahead of the underlying event, from short-horizon weekly markets to long-dated markets covering outcomes months or years away. Examples currently listed include "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?" and "Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 22?", which let traders take positions as new information emerges over the life of the market.

Prediction markets and traditional forecasts, such as polls, models, or analyst estimates, are complementary tools. Because Polymarket traders are risking real capital, Weather odds aggregate many participants’ information and incentives into a single probability, a mechanism that has historically tracked real-world outcomes closely in domains like Elections, Economy, and Geopolitics. That said, no market is a guarantee; odds represent trader consensus at a point in time, not a prediction of what will happen.

You can browse the Weather page to see active markets, open any market such as "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?" to view its order book and full rules, and then trade Yes or No shares once your account is funded. The left-side navigation makes it easy to drill into subcategories like Temperature or Global to focus on the topics you follow most closely.

Weather markets are driven by the same catalysts that move the underlying real-world story: official announcements, scheduled events and deadlines, data and reporting, and major news. For a market like "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?", watch for upcoming dates, related Weather releases, and shifts in the broader Temperature and Global markets, all of which can change the implied probability traders assign to each outcome.

Every market card on Weather pages displays the current implied probability for each outcome along with 24-hour or cumulative trading volume. For deeper detail, including price history, the order book, and full resolution rules, click into any individual market such as "Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?" or "Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?".