No at 97.8% reflects the absence of sustained human-to-human transmission of Yersinia pestis capable of producing pandemic-scale spread. Official surveillance through October 2026 shows only isolated cases—two provisional U.S. reports and limited seasonal activity in Madagascar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—consistent with historical endemic patterns rather than exponential growth. The early-October Irkutsk laboratory worker death, initially raising pneumonic plague concerns, was not confirmed as plague by Russian authorities or the WHO, with more than 5,500 tests negative and no secondary cases among nearly 200 contacts. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an undetected lab accident producing a large, uncontained pneumonic cluster or the emergence of an antibiotic-resistant strain in a high-burden focus, both of which would require rapid model updates and new surveillance data to reassess.