**Trader consensus strongly favors no additional human plague case in the US by December 31, 2026, at a 92.5% market-implied probability.** CDC provisional data through mid-October show only two confirmed 2026 cases (one recovered in Arizona in April, one fatal in New Mexico in June), well below the long-term average of roughly five per year. Most US plague activity, driven by *Yersinia pestis* transmission via fleas from rodents or occasional cat exposure in the Southwest Four Corners region, peaks in warmer months and declines sharply by late fall. Surveillance, rapid antibiotic treatment, and the absence of unusual rodent die-offs or clusters support the low odds of a late-season event. Realistic scenarios that could shift the market include an atypical winter exposure in an endemic area or an imported case, though person-to-person pneumonic transmission remains exceedingly rare domestically.