Elevated West Nile virus transmission in New York City this season, driven by a record 1,772 positive mosquito pools through early October—far above 2025 levels—has pushed confirmed neuroinvasive cases to 31, already exceeding the prior year's total and aligning with the recent 2022–2025 average of 31 annual cases. Warmer, extended summers favoring mosquito abundance and early June detection of infected pools have sustained higher activity across all boroughs into fall. With mosquito season winding down, the closely matched market probabilities between the 20–34 and 35–49 ranges reflect uncertainty over final reporting of milder or late-season infections, surveillance completeness for neuroinvasive outcomes, and any additional October detections before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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