Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Minas Gerais for the October 25 runoff due to his first-round victory there with 48% of the vote against Lula’s 43%, reflecting the state’s shift toward the Liberal Party candidate amid broader dissatisfaction with the incumbent’s economic record and governance. The bellwether state’s conservative-leaning electorate, including strong support from evangelicals, agricultural interests, and southern regions, has consolidated behind the family brand following Jair Bolsonaro’s prior successes, enabling Flavio to outperform expectations despite Lula’s Northeast base. Traders’ implied probability aligns with this momentum and recent national polling showing a narrow Flavio edge, though late mobilization of undecided or abstaining voters and any last-minute campaign developments could still narrow the margin before ballots close.