Lula maintains a commanding position in São Paulo city for the October 25 runoff, with trader consensus reflecting his first-round edge of roughly 4.4 points there and stronger urban support compared with statewide or national trends. Recent polls show the national contest tightening to a near tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro after the first debate, yet São Paulo capital voters have historically favored the incumbent in the Workers’ Party base areas. Flávio’s gains in the metropolitan belt have narrowed margins in some suburbs, but city-specific results and ongoing mobilization efforts by both campaigns have not altered the city-level outlook. A final debate on October 23 offers the last major opportunity to shift undecided voters ahead of election day.