Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District, enters the October 25 second-round runoff against Leandro Grass (PT) with a clear polling advantage after narrowly missing an outright first-round win. Recent surveys, including Datafolha and Real Time Big Data, show her leading by roughly 20 points among valid votes, supported by strong legislative majorities in the DF assembly and federal delegation that aid coalition-building. First-round results placed her at 49.93% and Grass at 34.47%, with the remaining votes split among eliminated candidates. Trader pricing on victory margins reflects this gap while assigning substantial weight to “Other” outcomes amid typical runoff variables such as turnout, undecided voters, and regional voting patterns. The contest coincides with the national presidential second round.