Lula holds an 89% implied probability of finishing first in Pará in the October 25 runoff, while Flavio Bolsonaro sits at 11.5%, according to trader consensus. This positioning reflects Lula’s first-round win in the state with 49.9% of valid votes against 44.5% for the PL candidate, a result that exceeded several late-September surveys showing a closer contest. Regional voting patterns in Greater Belém and interior municipalities, combined with the state’s status as the North’s largest electorate, have reinforced expectations of continued Lula support. No major late developments have shifted the balance in the final days before the runoff, leaving the outcome dependent on turnout among undecided voters and any last-minute campaign activity.