Flávio Bolsonaro holds a clear edge in trader consensus for Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff due to his first-round lead of roughly two percentage points over incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and consistent advantages across most recent national polls. Economic dissatisfaction with Lula’s administration, including negative assessments of growth and living standards, has bolstered support for the Liberal Party candidate among conservative, evangelical, and business-aligned voters. Flávio has consolidated endorsements from eliminated first-round contenders and benefits from the institutional strength of his party in Congress. Although late October surveys from Datafolha and others show the race tightening to a statistical tie on valid votes, traders appear to weigh Flávio’s momentum, lower rejection risks in key demographics, and the two-round electoral system as favoring his path to victory.