The judicial ruling by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on October 8, which annulled Anthony Garotinho’s 274,411 first-round votes on eligibility grounds, shifted the valid-vote base and lifted Douglas Ruas (PL) above the 50% threshold to 50.88%. Regional electoral authorities confirmed and homologated this outcome on October 10 and 15, eliminating the scheduled October 25 runoff against Eduardo Paes (PSD). Traders have therefore priced “Other” as the dominant outcome, reflecting the high likelihood that no second round will occur and that margin-of-victory buckets tied to a runoff carry limited resolution value. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final appeals or procedural challenges that could still alter the certified result before formal proclamation.