The narrow first-round national lead secured by Flavio Bolsonaro has driven trader consensus toward his advantage in Amapá for the October 25 runoff, despite Lula’s razor-thin 225-vote edge there on October 4. Bolsonaro’s stronger showing across southern, southeastern, and central-western states, combined with the Liberal Party’s broader gains and the defeat of prominent PT-aligned figures such as Senator Randolfe Rodrigues in Amapá’s Senate race, have reinforced perceptions of momentum. Recent state-level results, including Dr. Furlan’s gubernatorial victory, and national polling showing a tight but competitive second-round contest further shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. The dry-law restrictions now in force ahead of voting add one final procedural element before ballots close.