Lula's overwhelming position in Bahia for the October 25 presidential runoff stems from the PT's longstanding dominance in the Northeast state, reinforced by his 66% first-round share there and the party's recent gubernatorial victory. Multiple pre-election surveys, including AtlasIntel and Quaest, consistently showed him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 25–35 points among valid votes in the state, reflecting voter alignment with federal social programs and local PT governance. Bahia's demographics and historical patterns—where Lula captured over 70% in the 2022 runoff—further anchor trader expectations of another decisive win. A narrow national contest or unexpected turnout surge among opposition voters could narrow margins, though structural barriers remain high given the first-round results and limited recent shifts in state-level data.