Lula holds a trader-implied 66% probability of finishing first in Amazonas in the October 25 runoff, ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro at 31.5%, reflecting the president’s first-round edge of roughly three points in the state and his alliance with gubernatorial frontrunner Omar Aziz. Recent state-level surveys, including Quaest and PoderData fieldwork from early to mid-October, show the two candidates statistically tied or separated by only a few points, consistent with Amazonas’ mixed urban-interior voting patterns and the concurrent state executive contest. Traders appear to price in Lula’s incumbency advantages, established voter mobilization networks, and the limited remaining time for shifts before runoff day, while viewing Bolsonaro’s path as narrower absent a late swing in turnout or undecided voters. The close national contest and Amazonas-specific polling averages continue to anchor market pricing ahead of the final vote count.