The second-round contest between Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) and Cadu de Lula (PT) for Rio Grande do Norte governor remains tightly contested three days before the October 25 vote, with first-round results separated by under one percentage point. Recent polling, including a Real Time Big Data survey from October 15–19 showing Allyson at 52% and Cadu at 48% of valid votes within the margin of error, underscores the technical tie that elevates probabilities on narrow Allyson margins and non-Allyson outcomes. The October 18 endorsement of Cadu by state assembly president Ezequiel Ferreira (PSDB) and other legislators has shifted some momentum, while a scheduled October 22 debate and undecided voters add volatility. Traders price these dynamics as reflecting elevated uncertainty over the final margin in a race with historically low first-round separation.