Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina for first place in the October 25 runoff, reflecting the state's consistent conservative tilt and his family's strong local organization. In the October 4 first round, he captured roughly 66.7 percent of valid votes there compared with Lula's 25 percent, outperforming his father's 2022 showing and coinciding with Liberal Party successes including Senate wins for Carlos Bolsonaro. Recent national runoff surveys show Flavio ahead overall, with traders viewing the southern electorate's preference for his platform on security, economy, and amnesty issues as durable. A narrow national tightening in late polls or unusually high abstention could test margins, yet Santa Catarina's structural right-wing base and limited Lula inroads make a reversal improbable absent major late developments.