The tight second-round contest on October 25 between incumbent President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, following first-round results with over 125 million votes cast and roughly 119 million valid, drives the 72% trader consensus for Yes. Polarization between the Workers’ Party and Liberal Party bases, combined with high registered electorate of 158 million and recent polling showing technical ties or narrow Flávio leads around 50-51% of valid votes, supports expectations of strong turnout mobilization. This setup increases the probability that the winner surpasses prior second-round absolute vote records amid population growth and consistent participation rates near 79%. Late campaign events could still shift participation levels.