Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Rio Grande do Sul for first place in the October 25 runoff, reflecting his decisive first-round victory there with 55.6% against Lula’s 35.7%. The state’s southern electorate has consistently favored the Liberal Party (PL) and right-wing candidates, reinforced by the recent election of a PL governor and strong regional support among evangelical voters and wealthier demographics. Bolsonaro has conducted targeted campaigning in the state, including visits to flood-affected areas in Porto Alegre, emphasizing security, flood recovery, and criticism of federal policies. National polling trends and first-round results in other southern states further align with this trader consensus. While a major late development such as a significant scandal or unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, the structural advantages in the state make a reversal unlikely before election day.