Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader support to finish first in Paraná during the October 25 runoff because the state delivered him nearly 60 percent of the valid vote in the first round, far ahead of Lula’s 31 percent. Pre-election surveys in Paraná consistently showed the Liberal Party senator leading by double-digit margins in both first- and second-round matchups, reflecting the region’s conservative tilt and alignment with the broader right-wing surge that boosted multiple Bolsonaro family candidates. The recent endorsement by outgoing Paraná governor Ratinho Junior further consolidated that base. Lula’s path to overtaking him would require unusually high turnout among his supporters combined with a sharp drop in Flávio’s mobilization, developments that remain unlikely given the size of the existing gap and the short time left before voting.