The Iranian regime's institutional resilience and unified security apparatus, centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, underpin trader expectations of continuity through late October. Following leadership losses earlier in 2026 and sustained external military and economic pressure, the system has consolidated around hardline factions without producing the defections, coordinated opposition, or institutional breakdown required for rapid collapse. Recent border clashes and domestic economic strains have not escalated into nationwide upheaval capable of overturning the government within days. While an unforeseen cascade of events such as sudden elite fractures or decisive external intervention remains theoretically possible, current evidence points to regime survival through the narrow resolution window.