Recent container carrier returns to the Red Sea, with scheduled capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb doubling to 448,273 TEU weekly by early October, represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment. IMF PortWatch data show a 7-day average of 26 transits per day through mid-October, equating to roughly 182 weekly passages and aligning with the leading 170-189 bin at 26.8% implied probability. Selective Houthi restrictions on Saudi-linked vessels since July have suppressed tanker flows, while bulk and container segments show modest recovery amid stable but tense security assessments. The narrow spread across 170-229 outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether the post-peak acceleration in liner services sustains through the week or encounters renewed incidents, with 230+ at 18% pricing in faster normalization. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital consensus on these near-term routing and volume dynamics.