Recent attacks on commercial vessels and the ongoing US-facilitated restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept AIS-visible daily transits at roughly 4–6 ships, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 20–29 total for the week of October 19. Heightened Iranian claims of strikes, elevated war-risk insurance, and operator caution have suppressed visible traffic to about 5% of the pre-crisis baseline near 85 per day, while some shadow-fleet or coordinated movements may add modest volume. Oil flows through the chokepoint remain near 70–80% of prior levels via selective routing, but weekly aggregates stay low amid the conflict. Key swing factors include any escalation or de-escalation signals before month-end data releases and the share of dark transits captured in final tallies.