**Pete Hegseth remains in office as Secretary of Defense (now styled Secretary of War) with active White House backing, which underpins the 78.5% trader consensus against his departure by December 31.** As of late October 2026, he continues to direct major personnel shifts, including the removal or blocked promotions of more than 80 senior officers since 2025, while overseeing U.S. military operations tied to the Iran conflict and conducting public appearances such as recent speeches in Ohio and Wisconsin. President Trump has publicly endorsed Hegseth’s leadership style and overruled only specific elements of controversial proposals, such as livestreaming an execution. Senate Democrats have floated his ouster after the November midterms as leverage for defense funding and to address Pentagon vacancies, yet this remains speculative and faces resistance from the administration. No confirmed resignation, firing, or successful removal process has materialized in the immediate window, leaving the short timeline and presidential support as the dominant factors holding the “No” probability elevated.