Howard Lutnick has served as Secretary of Commerce since his February 2025 Senate confirmation, maintaining an active role in the Trump administration’s tariff policy, trade negotiations with partners including India and Canada, and public events such as G20 ministerial meetings and congressional testimony as recently as mid-October 2026. No official statements, leaks, or reporting have signaled any imminent departure, resignation, or replacement in the final days of the month. Trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% probability for “No” aligns with the absence of any triggering political developments, institutional pressures, or personal announcements that would typically precede a cabinet exit. The short resolution window through October 31 further limits realistic paths to change, though an unforeseen health event, abrupt presidential decision, or late-breaking controversy could still alter the outcome before the deadline.