Strong presidential backing from Donald Trump, combined with the brief window remaining before October 31, underpins trader consensus that Pete Hegseth will remain Secretary of Defense. Hegseth continues active duties, including recent briefings on Middle East operations and defense modernization efforts, with no congressional confirmation votes, impeachment proceedings, or formal resignation signals scheduled in the immediate term. Senate Democrats have discussed leverage for a potential post-election shift, yet such processes require extended timelines incompatible with the market’s cutoff. While internal Pentagon tensions, leadership departures, and isolated controversies persist, they have not produced actionable removal steps within days. A sudden health event, major scandal, or abrupt White House directive remains among the few low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.