US-Iran military tensions, ongoing since February 2026, center trader attention on Kharg Island's status as Iran's primary crude export terminal handling roughly 90 percent of shipments. Recent US and Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian military sites, air defenses, and infrastructure on the island but have avoided oil loading facilities, pipelines, and storage tanks, leaving Iranian governmental and military control intact per official statements and satellite data. A sustained US maritime blockade and sanctions have halted tanker loadings at Kharg since late August, driving exports to zero, yet this economic pressure has not altered territorial authority. Market resolution requires another state or force to establish primary control rather than temporary disruptions or raids. Low implied probabilities reflect these structural barriers, with any shift dependent on major escalations such as expanded strikes or ground operations before deadlines like December 31.