US and Iranian forces continue to contest navigation authority through the Strait of Hormuz amid an active conflict that began earlier in 2026. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has escalated attacks on commercial vessels, claimed multiple mine strikes on tankers in October, and demanded transit permits via a new authority while threatening subsea cables. The United States asserts effective control through escorts, mine clearance, and blockades, reporting hundreds of successful transits despite the incidents. Indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar remain stalled over Iranian conditions for reopening the waterway, including sanctions relief. These competing assertions of authority and recent shipping disruptions define the primary drivers of trader assessments regarding any shift in territorial or operational control.