Mojtaba Khamenei's dominant 86% implied probability stems from his March 2026 appointment by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israel strikes, building on his prior influence within security structures and clerical networks. Recent developments include Assembly members reporting a majority consensus on succession with remaining procedural hurdles, alongside official statements affirming his governance role and knowledge of state affairs amid the ongoing conflict. Health speculation and his public absence since early 2026 have fueled doubts about command continuity, prompting some reports of interim council functions and potential post-war adjustments, yet these have not shifted trader consensus away from him. Lower-priced alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or reformist clerics reflect limited institutional support and the Assembly's wartime preference for continuity over external or opposition figures.