Ongoing economic protests since late 2025, triggered by currency collapse and inflation, have produced clashes with security forces but remain contained without evidence of coordinated military or IRGC involvement in any coup plot. External U.S.-Israeli strikes in February-March 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials, yet constitutional succession via the Assembly of Experts installed Mojtaba Khamenei without internal displacement or factional seizure of power. Analysts confirm no coup mechanism operated. Current diplomatic tensions, Hormuz incidents, and regime crackdowns on unrest continue, while scheduled negotiations and leadership consolidation limit near-term internal overthrow risks. Trader consensus on related markets reflects these verified barriers and the absence of recent coup indicators within resolution windows.