Netanyahu faces the highest implied probability among named leaders of departing office before 2027, driven by Israel's October 27 legislative election where his coalition trails in polls amid ongoing security operations in the West Bank, corruption proceedings, and opposition efforts to enact term limits and inquiry commissions. Recent unrest and institutional instability in France have elevated Lecornu after his brief tenure and resignation, while Sánchez confronts a November 29 snap election tied to housing legislation failures and coalition strains. Broader trader consensus reflected in the leading "none" outcome emphasizes structural continuity for most other incumbents, including those in the United States, North Korea, Russia, and China, absent immediate electoral or institutional triggers within the resolution window.