Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including escalations involving Iran and supply disruptions, have lifted WTI crude to approximately $103 per barrel and Brent near $116 as of October 23, 2026—well above the $85 threshold—with just days remaining before the November 3 midterms. This price trajectory underpins the 93% combined market-implied probability for the Oil ≥ $85 outcomes. High energy costs, reflected in national gasoline averages exceeding $4.29 per gallon, have weighed on voter sentiment in battleground states and contributed to Democratic polling edges in key Senate races such as Ohio, Texas, Maine, and Alaska. Aggregated forecasts place Democratic Senate control odds near 65-70%, aligning with the leading conditional probabilities in the market.