Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to no Hormuz Agreement by the October 23 deadline, reflecting the absence of confirmed multilateral diplomatic announcements or breakthroughs on Strait of Hormuz navigation and security matters. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and lack of recent bilateral or multilateral summits have kept expectations low for an accord within the tight resolution window. The minimal odds attached to conditional Republican or Democratic Senate outcomes tied to an agreement underscore the market's view that such a development is highly improbable. Late diplomatic statements or unexpected negotiations could still alter probabilities before final resolution.