Recent diplomatic exchanges through Qatari and Pakistani mediators have kept indirect US-Iran talks active on a seven-day ceasefire framework tied to Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and asset releases. Iranian officials have signaled willingness to maintain the channel despite sequencing disputes, while US statements indicate no intent to resume strikes before the November 3 midterms. Both sides appear to prioritize avoiding escalation that could affect domestic political outcomes or global energy markets. This environment of stalled but ongoing negotiations, absent major new military incidents in recent weeks, underpins the 73.5% implied probability that the current truce holds through the election period.