Escalating Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in October, reaching a record 27 incidents amid the ongoing Iran-U.S. conflict, represent the dominant driver behind current Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz transits the week of October 26. AIS-visible traffic has plunged to roughly 4% of pre-crisis norms, averaging just 3.6 ships daily over the past week, while operators face severe restrictions, required permits, and a U.S. naval blockade that forces many movements into dark, AIS-off corridors under coordination. This dynamic supports the leading 25-29 outcome at 42.5% market-implied probability, with <20 at 28.5% and 40+ at 28.0% reflecting uncertainty over untracked "dark shuttle" volumes and potential last-minute de-escalation or further strikes. Trader consensus prices in sustained disruption to Gulf oil flows, elevated tanker charter rates, and limited visible commercial crossings through the period.