The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes since February 2026 and recurring domestic protests underpins the strong trader consensus against collapse before 2027. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to his son Mojtaba have not produced institutional breakdown or high-level defections, with the IRGC maintaining cohesion and assuming greater operational control. Nationwide unrest triggered by currency collapse, inflation exceeding 80 percent, and economic sanctions has prompted a forceful security response without fracturing elite unity or enabling coordinated opposition. Nationalist sentiment has also risen in response to external pressure, while mediation efforts and pauses in major combat continue without triggering systemic change. These factors align with assessments from U.S. intelligence and regional analysts that the Islamic Republic, though weakened, retains core survival mechanisms through the remainder of 2026.