US policy under the Trump administration has explicitly distanced itself from recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader, citing respect for Iranian sovereignty and the principle that any transition must be determined by the Iranian people. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid US-Israeli military operations earlier in 2026, Washington pursued a ceasefire framework that omitted regime change and publicly rejected installing Pahlavi, with statements from the president and vice president underscoring that outcome. Pahlavi continues to advocate for a transitional role and democratic referendum while engaging Iranian-American voters ahead of November midterms, yet these efforts have not shifted official US positioning. High trader consensus on "No" reflects this consistent non-endorsement and historical reluctance to formally anoint exiled figures absent broad domestic consensus or formal diplomatic rupture. A rapid regime collapse with verifiable Pahlavi-led domestic momentum or a post-election policy reversal could still alter the trajectory before year-end.