The Islamic Republic's theocratic institutions, including the Supreme Leader's authority and Guardian Council vetting, create entrenched barriers against an exiled opposition figure like Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by 2026. Trader consensus at 97.7% probability for "No" aligns with the absence of regime transition signals, limited internal networks for Pahlavi despite diaspora efforts, and continuity in security force control amid periodic unrest. Historical precedents of authoritarian resilience in comparable systems reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden elite fractures, large-scale domestic upheaval, or decisive external diplomatic pressures within the resolution window.