The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity and security apparatus, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have sustained its hold despite the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, subsequent leadership shifts to Mojtaba Khamenei, and intensified U.S.-Israeli strikes. Traders price an 81.5% chance the regime survives past June 2027 because repeated leadership decapitation, economic contraction, inflation above 80%, rial collapse, and oil export blockades have not triggered security-force defections or coordinated opposition capable of toppling the system. Recent factional strains and protests over living costs have surfaced, yet authorities maintain control through crackdowns and wartime cohesion. Mediation efforts and potential post-election strikes remain secondary to the pattern of resilience observed since February, which aligns with the market’s implied probability.