The regime's survival through sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes since February 2026, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple senior commanders, underpins trader expectations that it will endure past 2028. Security institutions, particularly the IRGC, have maintained cohesion without major defections, enabling continued suppression of protests and adaptation to leadership succession via Mojtaba Khamenei despite his limited public role. Severe economic pressures from sanctions, naval blockades, currency collapse, and fuel shortages have not yet produced the coordinated opposition or institutional fractures required for rapid change. Recent factional disputes over strategy and Gulf policy reflect internal strains but align with historical patterns of regime endurance under external threats rather than collapse.