Recent polls show Democrat Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead or statistical tie with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, with averages near 48-49% to 45-47% in first-round preferences ahead of the November 3 contest. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, large independent electorate, and focus on energy costs, fisheries, and federal spending keep the final-round margin tight, with traders assigning roughly even odds to outcomes under 3 points for either candidate. The recent debate highlighted sharp differences on the Iran conflict and staff records without shifting the polling balance. A Department of Justice lawsuit seeking to delay certification if Sullivan loses narrowly due to a similarly named candidate on the ballot introduces additional procedural uncertainty that could affect late dynamics or turnout patterns.