Incumbent Greg Abbott holds a consistent though narrowing lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in the Texas governor race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead by roughly three points among likely voters. Multiple surveys conducted in mid-to-late October, including those from Emerson College, Texas Public Opinion Research, and Fox News, place Abbott between 49% and 52% and Hinojosa between 45% and 48%. The race has tightened since summer, coinciding with early voting that began in October and heightened focus on cost-of-living issues, data center development, and turnout efforts ahead of the November 3 election. Trader consensus on prediction markets reflects this positioning, assigning Abbott the higher probability while acknowledging the contest remains competitive in a state with long-standing Republican advantages in statewide contests.