**Mayes Middleton leads the Texas attorney general race at 72% implied probability, ahead of Democrat Nathan Johnson at 27%, reflecting Texas’s longstanding Republican advantage in statewide contests despite an open seat.** Ken Paxton’s decision to run for U.S. Senate created the vacancy; Middleton secured the GOP nomination by defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 2026 runoff after a competitive primary, while Johnson advanced on the Democratic side. Recent polling averages show Middleton ahead by roughly three to five points, with some surveys within the margin of error amid broader softening for Texas Republicans. Middleton has positioned himself as the ideological successor emphasizing border enforcement, conservative social policies, and continuity with the prior administration’s approach. Johnson has focused on reducing partisanship in the office and prioritizing consumer protection and public corruption cases. Early voting begins shortly before the November 3 general election, leaving limited time for late shifts.