Recent polling averages show Democrat Amy Acton holding a narrow lead over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the open-seat Ohio governor race, with Acton favored among independents and women. Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced Acton at 82.5 percent amid backlash against Ramaswamy's attack ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, which drew bipartisan criticism and amplified negative campaigning in the final weeks. Ramaswamy secured the GOP nomination with early Trump support and cleared primary opposition, but his independent support has declined sharply compared with prior Republican nominees. The Nov. 3 election remains within margins of error in many surveys, though markets reflect Acton's current polling edge and Ramaswamy's headwinds in a state that has trended Republican federally.