Recent polling in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race shows Democratic challenger Mary Peltola holding narrow leads over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in first-round and ranked-choice scenarios, including margins of 2 to 6 points in October surveys from InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen, and Public Policy Polling. Peltola’s stronger primary performance, where she captured nearly half the vote compared to Sullivan’s 41 percent, has reinforced expectations under the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election format. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting Alaska’s electoral math and voter patterns that have favored Peltola in head-to-head simulations. With the November 3 election just days away and no major late developments shifting the trajectory, traders assign low odds to a Sullivan victory by November 2.