Jenny Costa Honeycutt holds a 64.5% implied probability in the SC-01 House race because the open seat in a district with a Republican lean favors the local Republican nominee backed by President Trump and outside GOP spending from groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund. Recent polling averages show Honeycutt ahead or nearly tied, while forecasters including Cook Political Report shifted the race to Lean Republican in mid-October. Nancy Lacore’s stronger third-quarter fundraising and television advertising have narrowed the contest, but her more recent arrival in the Lowcountry and positions on issues such as data centers and background checks have allowed Honeycutt to emphasize local experience and community ties ahead of early voting and the November 3 election. Trader consensus reflects these structural and campaign dynamics.