Recent polling from Gallup, Alpha Research, Market Links and others shows incumbent Iliana Iotova leading Andrey Gyurov by roughly 12–18 points among decided voters, with Kostadin Kostadinov a distant third near 11–12 percent. Low projected turnout of 39–47 percent, fragmented opposition support and the requirement for an absolute majority to avoid a runoff keep the first-round margin fluid. Security incidents including Black Sea drone activity and a recent National Security Service confrontation have not produced measurable last-minute shifts. Trader expectations for a 10–20 point Iotova win reflect stable but still compressible leads; higher-than-expected turnout among reformist or nationalist blocs or clearer differentiation on EU-NATO alignment could widen or narrow the gap before voting concludes on 25 October.