Marine Le Pen leads the market at 46.2% as the declared National Rally candidate, reflecting her consistent first-round polling lead near 35% and projected runoff victories in recent surveys against fragmented opponents. October 2026 far-left protests and riots lifted her support by 1-2 points while underscoring divisions on the left and center, where Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, Édouard Philippe, and others split votes. Philippe sits at 16.5% as the strongest mainstream alternative but trails amid centrist infighting and voter fatigue with prior governments. Lower probabilities for David Lisnard, Mélenchon, and others stem from the crowded field and historical runoff dynamics favoring the National Rally frontrunner, with the first round scheduled for April 2027.